2018 Hurricane Season Predictions

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has released their predictions for the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season, which is acknowledged as officially beginning on June 1, 2018. According to their predictions there is a 75% chance that this year’s hurricane season will be a near or above average season.

As you can see in the chart above, they are predicting 10-16 named storms, 5-9 hurricanes, and 1-4 major hurricanes. To help you better understand what these categories mean, here is a breakdown of the criteria for each.

Named Storms: Storms where wind speeds are 39 MPH or higher.

Hurricanes: Of the 10-16 named storms they predict that 5-9 of them will become hurricanes, meaning they develop wind speeds of 74 mph or higher.

Major Hurricanes: of the 5-9 hurricanes the NOAA predicts that 1-4 of those storms will develop into major hurricanes, meaning they are classified as a Category 3, 4, or 5 and have wind speeds that reach 111 mph or higher.

An average hurricane season produces 12 named storms, 6 of which becomes hurricanes and 3 of those become major hurricanes. Based on an average hurricane season you can see why this year's predicted numbers indicate that we could have an above average season in 2018. However, the NOAA is not the only organization that releases a hurricane season prediction every year. Here are some other predictions from various organizations.

Colorado State University: This is one of the most highly regarded institutions when it comes to forecasting. They have predicted – 14 named storms – 7 hurricanes – 3 major hurricanes.

North Carolina State University: Researchers here are predicting – 14 to 18 named storms – 7 to 11 hurricanes – 3 to 5 major hurricanes.

The Weather Company: This organization has predicted a little less activity than the other two and much closer to an average season, with 12 named storms – 5 hurricanes – 2 major hurricanes.

Overall, it seems that just about everyone is on the same page with what they predict the 2018 hurricane season will look like. Based on the research, history, and current predictions it appears that this season will be near to above average and consist of multiple storms that could potentially cause a lot of damage. Ultimately, these are all educated guesses and we will have to leave it up to mother nature to determine just how this storm season will play out. And just for fun, here is a sneak peak at this year's tropical storm/hurricane names.